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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
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Development Strategy center

“SUPERSPREADERS” OF COVID-19


The global COVID-19 pandemic is spreading across the world by seriously affecting human health and socio-economic life of different countries. The escalation of its second wave, especially, in Central Asian countries urges everyone in Uzbekistan to be more vigilant and cautious.  Unfortunately, it became clear that not only we, but also the most developed countries of the world were not ready for the challenges of the coronavirus epidemic, which revealed serious problems in healthcare systems, social protection and other related spheres of the most countries. Under these circumstances, first of all, the medical industry is under great pressure and is failing to provide extensive coverage and emergency medical services to virus-infected patients. In such circumstances, first of all, the medical sector is under great pressure and facing unprecedented challenges to provide comprehensive emergency medical service to patients infected with COVID-19.

Uzbekistan has been taking certain actions to prevent and protect population from the spread of coronavirus, and also to provide high-quality medical care to those infected with it.   In particular, the quarantine regime has been reintroduced in the country from July 10 until August 1. One of the main goals of this measure is to protect the population from the coronavirus and break the chain of infection.

In the absence of a coronavirus vaccine or full treatment the World Health Organization (WHO) has acknowledged that the most effective way to curb a pandemic is to adhere strictly quarantine regulations.  Therefore, Uzbekistan’s active measures are focused on preventing and limiting the spread of the coronavirus among population through self-isolation and social distancing, identifying infected patients and areas as early as possible.

It is noteworthy that several reasons led to the reintroduction of quarantine restrictions in the country.

In particular, according to the Republican Special Commission, as soon as the previous quarantine rules were partially relaxed, many ceased to follow even the lightest quarantine requirements and began to organize public events, weddings and other public ceremonies without wearing medical masks and rules of social distancing, despite the established instructions. As a result, in most cases, due to negligence or carelessness in the first week of July the number of patients with coronavirus increased by 2167 people, of which 58% were detected among the population.

As a result, in most cases, due to the negligence or carelessness the number of people tested positive for coronavirus during the first week of July increased to 2167 people, 58 % of cases were registered among the population. During the previous strict quarantine period, the number of infection cases stood at 2418 from March 16 to May 10, whereas right after the easing of quarantine measures from May 10 to July 9, the figure rose sharply to 9,029. The daily anti-record has been updated on July 13 when infection cases reached 594 and 322 of them were detected among the population. The most sad thing is that death cases among patients is also increasing.

As of July 22, the number of cases of coronavirus infection in the country has exceeded 18,000, and the death toll has reached 97 people.

If the world experience for violations of quarantine rules observed many countries have strict punishments. For example, in the United States, if a person has violated compulsory isolation and infected others, he may be given a fine of 100 thousand dollars or a prison sentence of one year. In Spain, fines for leaving home without good reason during the quarantine period ranged from 600 to 10.4 thousand euros. In France, breaking quarantine rules on regular basis is punishable by up to 6 months in prison and a fine of 3,700 euros.

The re-strengthening of the quarantine regime in Uzbekistan, as many imagine, is not a complete lockdown, but mainly focused on service sector which related to mass gathering of people in public places and other outdoor activities. These necessary measures of strengthening the quarantine regime are crucial  to control the spread of the virus and to stabilize the situation in the health care system of the country which faced significant pressure in the first week of July, according to the Republican Special Commission.

The Commission had also stated that existing capacity of medical facilities is not enough to receive COVID-19 infected patients as the lack of strict quarantine measures has led to a shortage of available places and medical personnel in most hospitals of the country. According to the Commission, strict quarantine and self-isolation of citizens will help alleviate pressure on healthcare institutions, doctors and medical staff, and will help to restore country’s economy in August.

In fairness, the official statistics of the Republican Special Commission only records the identified cases of coronavirus infection, however, the real numbers may differ several times as in other countries, and also it is impossible to confirm accurately the number of patients without symptoms of coronavirus. But the fact is that precisely because of the asymptomatic patients in countries where the spread of Covid-19 allegedly had been under control (Singapore), we have witnessed a second wave of coronavirus and worsening of the epidemiological situation.

According to some studies, the second wave of the coronavirus infection may be caused by asymptomatic carriers of Covid-19. Thats why, it is wrong to point to only one factor, or to blame solely the health care system of any country for the recent sharp increase in infection cases in some parts of the world. The reasons of such growth might be firstly, due to the peculiarity of asymptomatic carriers of Covid-19, and secondly, undiscovered features of the virus with convincing evidence of its processes of infection or spread in medical science.

The recent study published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 50% of diagnosed cases may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms. Doctor Ron Elfenbein warned that asymptomatic patients are the most common carriers of the virus and they could be a cause for coronavirus outbreak among population. According to the doctor,patients without symptoms are considered as superspreaders” of coronavirus infection.

Professor Neil Hall of  Earlham Institute (England) believes that despite the measures taken, the outbreak of a global pandemic might be associated with asymptomatic carriers of Covid-19. The reason is that the superspreaders” themselves do not know that they are infected with Covid-19 and spreading the virus among the population. Several cases have been observed in practice since the beginning of the pandemic. In particular, asymptomatic carriers were diagnosed with coronavirus among passengers of the Princess Diamond cruise ship, which sailed from Japan. According to the study, three quarters of those diagnosed were asymptomatic patients. Moreover, a study in China showed that the number of asymptomatic patients was much higher than those with symptoms.

Professor of Oxford University Karl Hennegan concludes that  many cases could have been overlooked if the tests for coronavirus were done only in patients with pronounced symptoms of Covid-19, as it was the case in the UK. According to the professor special attention should be paid to the preventive measures by focusing on asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

Another compelling moment is that the European Commission advised member states to start flu vaccinations soon to stop hospitals being hit with flu and COVID-19 patients.

As we all know, in our country the morbidity of population increases significantly by autumn-winter seasons, especially children suffer with flu and fevers. This, in turn, requires medical institutions and the entire healthcare system of the country to be more prepared for additional pressure. Therefore, it is very important to strictly adhere to the current quarantine measures and take the situation under full control before the fall season.

In these circumstances, regardless healthy or not all citizens are required to follow strictly quarantine procedures: wearing a medical mask properly, practicing personal hygiene habits, following social distancing and self-isolation which are considered as the most effective ways to prevent and stop the spread of the virus.

Furthermore, the current situation requires citizens not to neglect the quarantine rules but various rumors and myths around Covid-19. Because today, the coronavirus is causing the death of thousands of people around the world. Since coronavirus has killed thousands of people around the world, under current circumstances it is very important to be more cautious about health of our people, family and children.

Farrukh Hakimov
Project Coordinator
Development Strategy Center